Yuanrang
- いいね数 856,491/1,163,066
- フォロー 1,908 フォロワー 2,154 ツイート 148,804
- 現在地 Nagano, Japan
- Web http://twilog.org/Ievrem
- 自己紹介 I'm trying to write in English. A very lazy birder. フォロー、リムーブご自由にどうぞ @Ievrem@mstdn.social
2022年05月07日(土)
Destruction of fuel infrastructure also plays a part
Here on the highway from Kyiv to Zhytomyr almost every gas station is destroyed… the result of the Russian military attempting to encircle Kyiv pic.twitter.com/n4GKAi9WNm
タグ：
posted at 23:32:54
We were lucky enough to find enough gas to move around: in one case our team needed to take a risk and drive 40km outside the city for fuel run after we got a hot tip
They found it just in time -- once they filled up, the line had already grown to an hours-long ordeal
タグ：
posted at 23:26:46
On the ground in Ukraine, a big problem is fuel.
There's a shortage all across the country, limiting movement -- for refugees seeking to flee; for humanitarian aid in and out of the country.
タグ：
posted at 23:25:34
Good morning to readers!
Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.
As we approach Russia's 'Victory Day' on Monday, it's worth reflecting on how Putin misjudged the appeal and meaning of Russian language, identity and empire to Ukrainians...
タグ：
posted at 23:15:30
新政 コスモス別誂 ウクライナ支援酒。開栓3日目。ウイスキーに使われるミズナラ樽で貯蔵したもの。
いつもの甘酸っぱさに木香のチョコっぽい香り。良いすね。 pic.twitter.com/rQOVrv0gbu
タグ：
posted at 22:06:42
AB InBev, the world's largest brewer, launches production of a popular Ukrainian beer in Belgium to aid humanitarian relief efforts in Ukraine following Russia’s invasion reut.rs/38WumAG pic.twitter.com/bJtDWajuSd
タグ：
posted at 21:55:00
皆さんほんとに多くの支援ありがとうございました。ここで一旦募集を終了とさせていただきます
今から本を調達しにいき、ハンガリーへ移動します。また後ほどご報告いたします twitter.com/tanuki_ukraine...
タグ：
posted at 21:53:10
非公開
タグ：
posted at xx:xx:xx
Teruaki Enoto | 榎戸輝揚 @teru_enoto
サイクロトロンの説明動画。研究成果とか教育活用とかもあるかもしれないけれど、何かの役に立つかとかは脇において、科学を文化として楽しむ、そういう土壌を作りたいというのは、今日のメンバーの気持ちとしてあったと思う。youtu.be/DMMTu0K6FIY
タグ：
posted at 20:59:28
UMEの作品もこちらでお求め頂けます。普段通販や店舗委託を行っていませんので、この機会に是非！
#博物ふぇす twitter.com/hakubutufes/st... pic.twitter.com/ahbdOs9zKw
タグ： 博物ふぇす
posted at 20:39:00
Teruaki Enoto | 榎戸輝揚 @teru_enoto
アマチュア科学でどんなことを楽しめるかをひたすら議論しました。makezine.jp/event/makers-m... とか www.itmedia.co.jp/news/articles/... とかの記事でも読めます。いろいろアイデア出てきて面白いよね。 pic.twitter.com/9WFXRUJStg
タグ：
posted at 20:34:14
Teruaki Enoto | 榎戸輝揚 @teru_enoto
理研の同僚、そしてご近所さんが、ご自宅のアパートの一室に粒子加速器を作っているので見学させていただきました〜。サイクロトロンが完成していて、今度は線形加速器を作られていました。その後、焼き肉でいろんなサイエンス談義。とっても面白かった！先日の知の共有ゼミのスピーカーさんです！ pic.twitter.com/9G6VCAXPWn
タグ：
posted at 20:20:12
A student of the Faculty of Chemistry at Moscow State University hung out a poster with the inscription "Peace" and the flag of Ukraine from the window of the building.
#Russia pic.twitter.com/3yZ51EaRA1
タグ： Russia
posted at 20:09:05
二重の誤りです。
まず，動物の行動を擬人化して人に当てはめるのは生物学における典型的な誤りです。さらにシマウマとライオンという異なる種間の行動を，同じ種である人間の中の弱者と強者の関係に当てはめているのも，類推の論理の使い方を誤っています。 twitter.com/tiger_stlv2/st...
タグ：
posted at 20:03:18
The invaders shelled the museum of Hryhoriy Skovoroda in Skovorodynivka in the Kharkiv region, according to the head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration Oleh Synegubov. pic.twitter.com/MC9xXEVcyl
タグ：
posted at 19:59:15
Hans-Peter Burtscher @hapebu11
@TarasDudykevych @samagreene Yes, the trust for cooperation has gone, if Russia decides to have nice relations, then the trust can start to grow.
タグ：
posted at 19:55:20
“Sishy” ハーモ･シシー 札幌横浜 @harmosishy
ロスコスモスが、突然ロゴマーク変えた！
ただの星のみ？、個人的には前の方が良かったが何かの意図か‥
ちなみにサイトにアクセスできなくなってる
#Roscosmos #Роскосмос pic.twitter.com/VJUFhsS4A4
posted at 19:47:51
Australia is a highly multicultural society (though not enough imo), and the fact that police default to preventing the expression of free speech when they cannot understand the discussion at the protest is a massive, structural threat to free speech in Australia.
タグ：
posted at 19:45:26
@nswpolice I doubt this is a case of overt bias and a desire to quash voices critical of China's ruling party, as some will claim, but more likely that police feel they can not accurately assess the level of threat when most of the conversation isnt in English. Which itself is a big problem
タグ：
posted at 19:44:19
Tonight in Sydney, @NSWPolice arrested a peaceful protester at a protest where there was no violence by any side. Given the general accommodation by police in Sydney to protests, the question must be asked of why did police shut this entirely peaceful protest down so quickly? pic.twitter.com/VENY5lQQzQ
タグ：
posted at 19:42:39
Veteran anti-war activist and Ukraine supporter Mikhail Kriger was arrested at his home in Moscow. twitter.com/OvdInfo/status...
タグ：
posted at 19:42:27
@rockfish31 1）ロシア侵攻で欧州中心に先進国がロシアにどれだけエネルギー資源を依存しているかわかった。→制裁でエネルギー価格高騰。来年の冬はもう今年以上に厳しいと経産省が予測出してる。2）ウクライナは世界の穀物粉。食物(それも主食の）までロシアに握られることになってしまう。
タグ：
posted at 19:42:17
@rockfish31 @MIKITO_777 ウクライナを応援してるというかロシアの武力による現状変更を許さないという国際社会と歩調を合わせてるだけなのでは。ってか中立は悪手だしロシア側に付くとか正気？って感じなのですが。
タグ：
posted at 19:42:10
Dr Andy Scollick @Andy_Scollick
There will be no end to #RussianWarCrimes until Russian forces are defeated in ALL Ukraine (incl Crimea), withdrawn and placed on the far side of a 200km-wide demilitarised buffer zone inside Russia that runs the length of Ukraine's eastern border. twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/...
タグ： RussianWarCrimes
posted at 19:36:32
国際秩序が守られる。日本にとって生命線で、これが守られない世界がこれからのスタンダードになるのであれば、改憲して核武装するしかなくなる。 twitter.com/j_sato/status/...
タグ：
posted at 19:31:35
非公開
タグ：
posted at xx:xx:xx
#war The pictures show the one same naval berth with moored ships of the BSF in Sevastopol.Probably,the Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate removed from one place to another on the same pier. In my opinion,it is impossible to say that Admiral Makarov is in the picture from May 7. pic.twitter.com/rJeisGBvcK
タグ： war
posted at 19:26:04
×「憲法は国家権力を縛ることもあれば、国民にさまざまな義務を課したり、時に権利を制限する場面もあるのです。」
憲法が権力を縛った結果の、国民に対する義務と制限なので、これはレイヤーの異なるものを恣意で混同した議論です。 twitter.com/trapfuse/statu...
タグ：
posted at 19:12:55
Interesting imagery in this thread from Nathan. In my view this Ukrainian push from Kharkiv is the first time we’ve seen them re-taking ground at a significant scale - and of course it will unbalance Russian calculations in the Donbas, forcing them to divert effort fm elsewhere twitter.com/nrg8000/status...
タグ：
posted at 19:12:09
Michaela Wiegel @MichaelaWiegel
Jetzt wird geschossen! @EmmanuelMacron #Frankreich pic.twitter.com/84or7z1RKY
タグ： Frankreich
posted at 18:52:32
Sometimes it seems that every time Berlin has an option between right & wrong it chooses the latter.
Berlin allows Ukrainian flags for 1 hour on May 8 after previously forbidding Ukrainian symbols, putting them on the same list as Russian imperialist symbols.
タグ：
posted at 18:50:11
Also, note there's no evidence of any bridgehead under firm Ukrainian control, so there's no 'blue' on my map in the areas with fighting. This is because the units there are likely highly mobile, ambush and harassment units. However, I assess that Russia has lost firm control.
タグ：
posted at 18:44:51
3/
Anna spent 21 days in ICU. It's a miracle she survived and she's learning to walk again.
The story ends with the words by journalist Katryn Eiderlorf - Anna intends to speak in Bundestag to tell German people how russians ruined her whole life!
タグ：
posted at 18:43:42
2/ On 4th March she tried to leave the town by car with her husband. Their car was under shooting. Her husband died before her eyes. Anna herself was wounded with lots of shrapnel, one of which killed the 5 months old fetus inside her.
タグ：
posted at 18:43:17
1/
Anna Polonska lost her husband and a 5 months old pregnancy trying to escape from Bucha. She was severely wounded and now is learning to walk again.
The woman on the screen that speaks German freely is Anna Polonska, a teacher from Bucha. pic.twitter.com/Y2NTp9RUvn
タグ：
posted at 18:42:43
What is also interesting is that these fires are not just to the West of Izyum but also to the East, suggesting Ukraine is pushing from multiple directions. pic.twitter.com/cRduIBULSW
タグ：
posted at 18:42:00
Ukraine Front Lines @EuromaidanPR
The railway bridge that was destroyed during the russian invasion, is restored in #Irpin.
The first electric train has already arrived in the city along it. pic.twitter.com/1492hyPKxO
タグ： Irpin
posted at 18:42:00
Report:
Taliban has launched house-to-house search operations in Panjshir.
twitter.com/aamajnews24/st...
タグ：
posted at 18:35:19
Both Yesterday and the day before lower resolution satellite imagery showed fighting closer to the city, and I've been mapping it accordingly, but I'm still shocked at the apparent ferocity of the fighting around Izyum and how close it has gotten to the city. pic.twitter.com/f12fIwiJUx
タグ：
posted at 18:31:50
Frederik Van Lokeren @KaptainLOMA
Doesn't look like Admiral Makarov got hit. Instead, a Serna class landing craft was struck near Snake Island. It looks like Russia might not be able to occupy and supply zsnake Island for much longer at this rate of attrition. twitter.com/CovertShores/s...
タグ：
posted at 18:23:25
Railway communication resumed in Irpin, mayor Oleksandr Markushyn
Today, for the first time in several weeks, an electric train arrived at the Irpin railway station. Almost from the beginning of the war, the bridge was destroyed. pic.twitter.com/HfdnELxDoO
タグ：
posted at 18:16:52
Cats are revered animals in Islam, & considered the quintessential pet. Admired for their cleanliness, they're allowed to enter homes & even mosques.
It’s #Caturday & to celebrate the start of the weekend here are 15 incredible photos of cats, mosques & prayer mats.
A thread… pic.twitter.com/X3f6QJwMPv
タグ： Caturday
posted at 18:14:55
Report:
- Taliban has recaptured Darah and Abshar districts in Panjshir this morning.
- Taliban has taken some local elders hostage in a mosque in Abshar district.
- Clashes also reported in Shotul district.
#Afghanistan
twitter.com/HashteSubhDail...
タグ： Afghanistan
posted at 18:14:44
This would also explain Ukraine adding 1 ship to their claimed Russian losses. There is still no evidence the Admiral Makarov was hit.
タグ：
posted at 17:49:53
**UPDATE***
#Russian navy vessel hit at Snake Island by #Ukraine️ TB2, appears to be a Serna class (Project 11770) landing craft.
Corrects previous tweet
Note the assault boat (e.g. Raptor in left of the image
Photo for ref pic.twitter.com/HGqwblZCHO
posted at 17:49:49
More Ukrainian Tb2 strikes against Russian positions on Snake Island. Looks like a Serna class landing craft was hit and destroyed. pic.twitter.com/PDUVuweAxq
タグ：
posted at 17:46:40
European Pravda @EuropeanPravda
Стала відома дата візиту глави МЗС Німеччини до Києва www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2022/05/7... pic.twitter.com/HWRR3VcYA9
タグ：
posted at 17:34:55
Last night the National Literary and Memorial Museum of Hryhorii Skovoroda, located in the village of Skovorodynivka near Kharkiv, was destroyed.
#RussianWarCrimes #Genocide #StopPutin #StopKirill twitter.com/BohdanaNeborak...
タグ： Genocide RussianWarCrimes StopKirill StopPutin
posted at 17:29:57
It is a lovely thing to live with a #glassart piece - the light constantly changes, taking your focus from one colour, one bird, one feature to another. And the waking garden becomes part of the whole…
“Kierkegaard’s Clowns”, 2021 #puffins #birdart pic.twitter.com/re1SYH9N7j
posted at 17:04:21
れいわ新選組のように、きちんと戦争を起こした側の責任を問うことをしない「戦争反対」のスローガンからは、第二次大戦前夜にフランスの政治学者が言った「戦争反対の宣伝は、それ自体戦争宣伝の一形態である」が想起される。
タグ：
posted at 16:55:05
Here it is in a 1942 drawing by Agathe Veeber (EKM j 28346 G 18140) pic.twitter.com/U1BBaSrt9A
タグ：
posted at 16:27:17
This is the street in the 1930s, note the cobblestone. Most photos show the (cute) view through this archway from this point or from Harju St. If you've got photos that show the stairway, please share. All of the buildings were destroyed in the air-raid #tallinn #eestiajalugu pic.twitter.com/B75P2TtawJ
タグ： eestiajalugu tallinn
posted at 16:25:24
Was cleaning this section of a former street yesterday & realised I am just casually brushing away #WWII debris... Yup the aftermath of a 1944 #Soviet air-raid, a scar as fresh as yesterday 🙄 pic.twitter.com/vfGDpOGHcF
posted at 16:15:58
Remains of the museum of Grigory Skovoroda (an C18 Ukrainian Cossack philosopher) in the #Kharkiv region, 7 May 22, via @gazetaua_twit gazeta.ua/ru/articles/np... pic.twitter.com/4CqSxgDMxP
タグ： Kharkiv
posted at 16:07:47
300 cases: #Ukraine continues to record war crimes of Russian forces against #CulturalHeritage - Most of them are in #Kharkiv (88), #Donetsk (62) & #Kyiv regions (49), via @MKIPUkraine tsn.ua/ru/ato/uzhe-30... pic.twitter.com/JISNhEUSfu
タグ： CulturalHeritage Donetsk Kharkiv Kyiv Ukraine
posted at 16:01:30
Frederik Pleitgen @fpleitgenCNN
A sad but so important story by @bjoernstritzel from @BILD - a volunteer is killed trying to help evacuate a zoo in Kharkiv. www.bild.de/politik/auslan...
タグ：
posted at 15:53:03
東野篤子 Atsuko Higashin @AtsukoHigashino
これは完全に番組と研究者のミスマッチだったんでしょうね。そもそも、私をヨーロッパ国際関係の研究者だとは認識しておらず、ふわっと「ロシア事情通」とみなしていた節もあり（この点は今にして思えば私の事前の念押しが足りなかった部分も）
どのように使われるか、あるいは使われなかったりして。
タグ：
posted at 15:22:51
東野篤子 Atsuko Higashin @AtsukoHigashino
ともあれ私としては「ナチスとの戦い」というロシアの言説を、額面通りに今回のウクライナ戦争にあてはめるのは無理がありすぎる、というお話をしたのですがなかなか満足していただけず、
「すみません、これ以上聞いていただいても、ご満足のいくコメントは出せそうにありません」と申し上げた次第。
タグ：
posted at 15:22:50
1/2 The 300th anniversary of the birth of Hryhorii Skovoroda, an enlightenment philosopher of Ukraine, is included to the Calendar of Anniversaries, which #UNESCO will celebrate in 2022-2023. #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/z06U11dCjv
posted at 15:12:56
1/1 Another horrible act of #Russian vandalism towards #Ukraine's cultural heritage.
As a result of a missile strike on #Kharkiv region, Hryhorii Skovoroda National Literary Memorial Museum was destroyed tonight.
#StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/mLmwHVbGSD
タグ： Kharkiv Russian StandWithUkraine Ukraine
posted at 15:12:55
対馬(5/2-7)
初の離島鳥見。これは面白い‼︎ 恒例行事にします。晴天続きで極端に鳥が少ない6日間となってしまったのは不運でしたが、それでも定番種にはひと通り出会えた印象。初見は9種でした。
シロハラホオジロは地味と見せかけて美しい。暗がりにひっそりと暮らす鳥だったとは知りませんでした。 pic.twitter.com/L14gaMuNJE
タグ：
posted at 15:11:50
08:55 #Kadiivka, Luhansk oblast (occupied): "Missile (=or rocket, the same word) launches, many of them" twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/s...
タグ： Kadiivka
posted at 15:03:06
OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical
“Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian attacks on the Izyum axis in the last 24 hours, with Kharkiv Oblast civilian leadership reporting that Ukrainian forces inflicted heavy casualties on Russian forces on the outskirts of Barinkove.”
タグ：
posted at 14:27:27
OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical
ISW- “The Ukrainian counteroffensive north and east of Kharkiv city secured further gains in the last 24 hours and may successfully push Russian forces out of artillery range of Kharkiv in the coming days”
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r... pic.twitter.com/s9jZuH7XfC
タグ：
posted at 14:27:26
Michaela Wiegel @MichaelaWiegel
« Je ne peux pas m'imaginer qu'à la longue la France insoumise représentera la gauche française » : La perplexité du député @NilsSchmid (SPD) après l’accord PS/LFI www.lepoint.fr/presidentielle...
タグ：
posted at 14:12:54
東北から九州北部まで広く分布するコチャルメルソウだとこんな感じ。左から、岡山県、三重県、京都府、岐阜県、石川県、新潟県。全部筑波実験植物園の共通圃場で育ててます。基本的には太平洋側か日本海側かで葉のサイズが大きく違います。なおゲノムワイドには中部山地を挟んで東西で大きく分かれる。 twitter.com/yokuyama/statu... pic.twitter.com/ROczKBJ7cJ
タグ：
posted at 13:49:46
モルドバワイン
国際品種の白赤飲み干した😋
税込1595円とは思えないクオリティ
ついでにモルドバワインマスター認定の試験も受けた📝
www.ywc.co.jp/entry/index.php
@mbtsuru pic.twitter.com/8QtGXiIXPj
タグ：
posted at 13:47:37
Desperately weak and pathetic. No statement would have been better than this. twitter.com/AP/status/1522...
タグ：
posted at 13:42:02
「1日6人が限界」 イルピンの男性はきょうも感情を殺して穴を掘る：朝日新聞デジタル www.asahi.com/articles/ASQ54... #ウクライナ情勢
そこには新しく掘られた墓が、生前の写真とともにいくつも並んでいました。
📝@MrTT11
タグ： ウクライナ情勢
posted at 13:37:43
People don't know what to report to suspend my account. Keep coming. pic.twitter.com/DZh1MbfRpw
タグ：
posted at 13:23:40
One thing Twitter has taught me is how smart and compassionate so many creatures on this planet are. 🐢 💙 pic.twitter.com/QWrjGXaALq
タグ：
posted at 13:19:17
@Michael_Coons Maybe, it's only about 2 feet by 4 feet and on a steep, steep slope though. If it is a tarp, it must have blown up there.
タグ：
posted at 13:05:15
My pet theory is he walked to the top, lost the light, ended up walking off this cliff or one of the cliff faces here, wedged in rocks or behind a bush. This blue smudge looks promising. pic.twitter.com/R1CI0G4Asn
タグ：
posted at 12:54:54
何で漁師や魚屋がこんなに騒ぐかって寄生虫による食中毒被害や風評が増えれば流通や販売の規制が強くなりかねないからですね
折角の新鮮な旬の魚が安全の為冷凍必須とかになれば設備費その他のコストは当然原価に乗ってくる 必然売価が上がりそこに消費者が付いてきてくれるかというと…_(:3｣∠)_
タグ：
posted at 12:52:23
I also remember that particular Sunday evening (December 10, 2015) because I had also gone hiking that night, and almost ran into trouble myself -- I had no flashlight, and the ocean layer suddenly rolled in and it went DARK. REALLY fast. It was BAD.
タグ：
posted at 12:46:53
Taras Dudykevych @TarasDudykevych
@samagreene Great thread. Additionally most Western companies with the Russian exposure took a great hit, e.g. BP for up to $25 billions. I doubt they will come back anytime soon even if sanctions will be lifted tomorrow. Plus Russia stole leased aircrafts. There is no way back
タグ：
posted at 12:05:34
Here's a look at which Russian tycoons' ships have made the longest journeys since the U.S. and its allies imposed sanctions on several oligarchs close to President Vladimir Putin trib.al/EQOWnMw
タグ：
posted at 11:30:09
Throwback to when Anomalocaris canadensis decided to take a nap as its home was being prepared during the installation of @ROMtoronto's Willner Madge Gallery, #DawnOfLife - now it floats over the #BurgessShale cases and keeps an eye on the gallery #FossilFriday 🌊 pic.twitter.com/NnaLw46PuS
タグ： BurgessShale DawnOfLife FossilFriday
posted at 11:28:49
Vladimir Dinets @VladimirDinets
Song sparrow (Melospiza melodia melodia), Troy Meadows, NJ. pic.twitter.com/72uROUBzcf
タグ：
posted at 11:20:29
雑貨屋の一角に子供服売ってて「かわいい〜♡なんか袖の位置変わってるね〜オシャレ〜♡」と興奮気味に次男にあててみようとしたら、店員さんに「これ大型犬用ですよ」と言われた本日も絶好調の私
タグ：
posted at 11:07:39
梱包用の透明封筒、同じ会社さんから同じ製品を無くなるたびに購入してるのだけど、前回購入したやつが微妙にペラペラして梱包しづらくて、今回購入したやつは元に戻っていた……微妙な違いでも差が出るもんだわ。
タグ：
posted at 11:07:28
Ratata aka ラッタッタ @ratata_ratata
@takinamiyukari ミョウガには悪いことをしてきました。あと、パセリもかならず使い切れない。
タグ：
posted at 10:52:19
And no, I have nothing better to do on a Friday evening than to tweet about ostensibly smart people being dumb. (Again, you know who you are.)
タグ：
posted at 10:36:27
Global: Military-Inf @Global_Mil_Info
Looks like the Constant Phoenix was deployed to Japan due to the U.S. believing that North Korea could conduct a nuclear test this month. twitter.com/is_keelu/statu...
タグ：
posted at 10:35:53
Whoa cool look at this giant wonky looking duck skull @ROMtoronto
(It's rly a bigol spinosaurid #dinosaur skull [cast] missing the front of the snoot)
#FossilFriday #BirdsAreDinosaurs pic.twitter.com/ByMIF65uEW
タグ： BirdsAreDinosaurs dinosaur FossilFriday
posted at 10:35:07
And if we're honest, then we have to acknowledge that these sanctions were meant to cause significant medium and long-term pain, and they're doing that. Calling them a failure because Muscovites can still go out for coffee is just dumb.
タグ：
posted at 10:34:50
Now, I'm not here to say that sanctions are always or even often effective. They most often aren't, even if there isn't often a better alternative -- and doing nothing is usually worse. I'm just here to call for honest analysis and a bit or memory (or at least Googling).
タグ：
posted at 10:34:50
Folks, we played this game with the post-Crimea sanctions, the post-MH17 sanctions, the post-Skripal sanctions: they were imposed for specific reasons, about which pundits and others quickly forgot, and then started measuring effectiveness by totally different yardsticks.
タグ：
posted at 10:34:50
Punishment, by contrast, was meant to help Russia lose the war it had chosen to fight, but sapping it of money and morale, but starving the war machine and the economy that feeds that machine. That was always going to be a gradual endeavor, and the verdict is still out.
タグ：
posted at 10:34:49
Why was punishment the goal, rather than deterrence? Because if Putin was working with any logical cost-benefit framework, this war would never have happened. Ergo, you're not going to get him to back off by increasing the costs.
タグ：
posted at 10:34:49
And fifth of all -- and this is the part that really bugs me -- these sanctions were never designed to deter Russia. They were designed to punish Russia, but not to deter it.
タグ：
posted at 10:34:48
In other words, Russia is sustaining itself by impoverishing its closest allies. How sustainable is that?
タグ：
posted at 10:34:48
The Kazakh tenge, meanwhile, is down 3% vs the dollar and 13% vs the Russian ruble -- though the IMF is projecting growth there of 2.3% (anemic given where oil prices are right now).
www.imf.org/en/Countries/KAZ
タグ：
posted at 10:34:48
While the Russian ruble is up 12% vs the dollar since the start of the war, the Belarusian ruble is down 24% vs USD and an even more massive 32% vs the Russian currency. The IMF is projecting the Belarusian economy to contract by 6.4% this year.
www.imf.org/en/Countries/BLR
タグ：
posted at 10:34:47
Fourth of all, one thing we're not paying attention to is the degree to which Russia has outsourced its pain -- at least in the short-ish run -- to Belarus and Kazakhstan, its two key trading partners in the Eurasian Economic Union.
タグ：
posted at 10:34:47
Per Russia's own border guards, 3.8 million people have left the country since the war began. Now, that's down to Putin as much as it is to sanctions, but that's a hit to productivity right now and growth potential down the line.
www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/06/nea...
タグ：
posted at 10:34:46
Third of all, the long-term damage is even greater. And it's not just about the lack of investment and the fact that Russian companies will have to work with subpar resources at inflated prices.
タグ：
posted at 10:34:46
So, the damage to the Russian economy is real, even if it's not immediately preventing Muscovites from sitting in cafés. Putin has spent 20+ years building sound fiscal and monetary policies. It will take more than a couple of months to undo that. Venezuela wasn't built in a day.
タグ：
posted at 10:34:45
Or there's the IMF, which is projecting an 8.5% drop in Russian GDP this year.
www.imf.org/en/Countries/RUS
タグ：
posted at 10:34:45
CBR Chief Nabiullina believes the sh*t will begin to hit the fan towards the third quarter of 2022, and I'm inclined to believe her.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/5315472
タグ：
posted at 10:34:45
Second of all, no Western policymaker or serious analyst expected a massive immediate impact on the economy. We knew that they had reserves (even if we could freeze half of them) and that those reserves would last them some time.
タグ：
posted at 10:34:44
First of all, Russia's economy is NOT back on its feet. The ruble is back on its feet, yes. But the ruble isn't the economy -- and the ruble is only back on its feet because it's being propped up by massive capital controls and $50.1 billion of reserves spent since the war began.
タグ：
posted at 10:34:44
So, I'm increasingly seeing stories like this one, together with takes from foreign policy analysts along the lines of "the West lacks a strategy for deterring Russia." (You know who you are.)
And it's going to make my head explode.
(An annoyed 🧵)
www.economist.com/finance-and-ec...
タグ：
posted at 10:34:43
You Fuckers: A Measured Response twitter.com/Hbomberguy/sta... pic.twitter.com/htHCzbqjLY
タグ：
posted at 10:11:57
ロシアの情報戦は旗色が悪いように見えるが、スペイン語圏、アラビア語圏では影響力を保っており、トルコとベトナムでも強い。また英語圏では陰謀論コミュニティに浸透している。
「MIBUROの記事からわかるロシア情報戦のターゲットと成果」
note.com/ichi_twnovel/n...
タグ：
posted at 10:00:00
2/
The man decided to escape from the coming of russians to his hometown:
" I did not want to be a slave," says the Mariupol resident.
Zhuzha still has calluses on her paws, but they are both alive.
[Video part 2] pic.twitter.com/lxdHDV3V1W
タグ：
posted at 09:55:05
lhor from Mariupol walked by foot over 200 kilometers with his dog Zhuzha. The way to Zaporizhia took 5 days. On the way, Ihor and Zhuzha were picked up by a truck driver. This saved the man's life .
[Video part 1] pic.twitter.com/3NLXqmWfaO
タグ：
posted at 09:52:53
BSで不登校のドキュメンタリー見てたら、文科省の長年の調査では不登校の原因の半数が「本人の無気力、不安」だったんだけど、それは学校に聞いた結果で、近年はじめて子供と家庭に聞いたら原因の3割が「先生」、3割が「いじめ」だったという話やってて、いや最初から子供に聞けよという感想しかない
タグ：
posted at 09:30:08
- There were no significant changes on the southern axis in the last 24 hours. Russian forces here continued to reinforce their forward positions.
- ISW cannot confirm reports of a Ukrainian anti-ship missile strike on the #AdmiralMakarov at this time.
isw.pub/RusCampaignMay6
タグ： AdmiralMakarov
posted at 09:28:27
Wagner private military contractors in Popasna.
t.me/grey_zone/13955 pic.twitter.com/KppyBvB402
タグ：
posted at 09:14:50
Map Updated.
Map = tinyurl.com/2uas5rjp
Frontline by @DavidBatashvili pic.twitter.com/pmipsDBGAY
タグ：
posted at 08:27:01
GeoConfirmed.
"Ukrainian 30th Mechanized Brigade mortar fire targeting Russian/Separatists trench lines and fortifications in Donbas"
Part 1: 48.394583, 38.300444
Part 2: 48.411782, 38.080141
#GeoLocated by @seginusnews2015 and @5urpher
#GeoConfirmed. twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/st...
posted at 07:58:04
GeoConfirmed.
"Russian Smerch MLRS targeting Ukrainian S-300 air defence system. One vehicles explodes after being hit."
48.763059, 37.937565
Geolocated by @PetrenkoCaptain
#GeoConfirmed.
t.me/RVvoenkor/11038
タグ： GeoConfirmed
posted at 07:18:51
Gakushi Fujiwara / 藤 @fujiwara_g1
先日、専門家の方と話した時に、来年から非常任理事国として安保理入りすることが濃厚な日本は、「ノルウェーをモデルとするべきだ」と言っていた。
ノルウェーら米国と近いが、是々非々で対応し、必要に応じては中国とも文案を考える。今回もメキシコとともに「最初の一歩」に貢献した。
タグ：
posted at 06:21:37
In addition to 5 settlements retaken by 🇺🇦 forces in Kharkiv oblast today, most importantly Tsyrkuny also has been liberated by Ukrainian troops
タグ：
posted at 06:17:07
Gakushi Fujiwara / 藤 @fujiwara_g1
ロシアによるウクライナへの侵攻が始まって72日目。安保理がようやく、見解を一致させて「議長声明」を出しました。
遅すぎたことは確かです。戦争の現場にもたらす影響もごくわずかでしょう。ただ、ロシアを巻き込んで合意した、ということは評価できると思います。
www.asahi.com/articles/ASQ57...
タグ：
posted at 06:08:20
⚡️ У США немає інформації, яка підтверджує удар ЗСУ по російському фрегату «Адмирал Макаров», – представник Пентагону Кібрі.
Нажаль😩
Ну ще не вечір,як то кажуть. Все буде🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
タグ：
posted at 05:15:05
OSINT Aggregator @AggregateOsint
#Kharkiv Update - #Ukraine has liberated Oleksandrivka, Fedorivka, Ukrainka, Shestakovo and
Peremoha E of #Kharkiv. 🇺🇦 has breached the #Russian defense around Cherkaski Tyshky NE of Kharkiv and is fighting 🇷🇺 to seize the town. This indicates 🇺🇦 recaptured Tsyrkuny as well. pic.twitter.com/ykE0k2jhfe
posted at 04:52:20
In fact, Russian MOD in its Friday evening briefing acknowledges the loss of Tsyrkuny, the last Russian outpost on the edge of Kharkiv. twitter.com/yarotrof/statu... pic.twitter.com/siDvA7n9jI
タグ：
posted at 04:29:21
We traveled to my beloved hometown of Cahersiveen to see how the people there are welcoming Ukrainian refugees -- it's a story playing out in many parts of rural Ireland.
w/ @LaurenGKent @NiamhMKennedy pic.twitter.com/FDZGhdaiq1
タグ：
posted at 04:18:47
Illia Ponomarenko @IAPonomarenko
Newly liberated towns northeast of Kharkiv.
Russia is losing its artillery positions against the city and I think it can’t afford redeploying troops from Izium to deter the Ukrainian counter-strike.
I think in the nearest time we’ll see UA military coming to the Russian border. pic.twitter.com/2r1Gfe7CBv
タグ：
posted at 03:51:12
To clarify, interference doesn’t mean jamming. The radar, during it’s normal operations, interfere with the SAR satellite as it passes, causing these disturbances
タグ：
posted at 03:30:21
NEW: U.S. has NO information to corroborate Ukraine striking the Russian frigate Admiral Makarov: Pentagon
"We've been looking at this all day," said Pentagon spokes John Kirby.
タグ：
posted at 03:16:15
***UPDATE***
Radar interference observed over northern Black Sea today possibly originates from Dzhankoi Air Base in north of Crimea.
It's a Russian Navy base, and is active in #Ukraine️ war. #OSINT
Nod @COUPSURE for supporting info pic.twitter.com/2QqZSZi09s
posted at 03:02:26
The Chaise Lounge Fi @ImportsView
@Militarylandnet Wagner found it tough circa 50% casualties.
twitter.com/mdmitri91/stat...
タグ：
posted at 01:50:50
Same Location as:
"Apparently Wagner group has captured #Popasna town hall."
twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/s...
タグ： Popasna
posted at 01:11:07
GeoConfirmed.
"Wagner mercenaries at #Popasna's townhall, #Luhansk Oblast"
48.63275, 38.37779
GeoLocated by @Cosmonaut19
#GeoConfirmed. twitter.com/Militarylandne...
タグ： GeoConfirmed Luhansk Popasna
posted at 01:11:07
Alexander Khrebet @AlexKhrebet
⚡️⚡️⚡️ The Ukrainian counterattack bore fruit. The army regained full control in Oleksandrivka, Fedorivka, Ukrainka, Shestakovo, and Peremoha in Kharkiv Oblast. The village of Cherkaski Tyshky is partially liberated, the General Staff reported. pic.twitter.com/BFTTNP3hEH
タグ：
posted at 00:42:49
Let's assume for a moment that what we see on this video is the #AdmiralMakarov then what happened to its Fregat M2M radar ? This one doesn't look like a Fregat M2M radar... #Russia #Ukraine twitter.com/CaucasianRebel... pic.twitter.com/7WMeZKuy3a
タグ： AdmiralMakarov Russia Ukraine
posted at 00:20:30
Centre for Informati @Cen4infoRes
🚨NEW - latest Eyes on Russia report is now live ⬇️
📑Latest geolocation & #OSINT verifications, including #Azovstalsteelplant and #Odessa
📑A mass grave west of #Mariupol
📑Latest #disinformation narratives around #Moldova
www.info-res.org/post/eyes-on-r...
タグ： Azovstalsteelplant disinformation Mariupol Moldova Odessa OSINT
posted at 00:01:43
